Why Is Chocolate Running Out?  

Chocolate is unequivocally one of the world’s favourite foods. Whether indulging in a silky smooth truffle, a caramel filled bar, a creamy milkshake or a simple slab of melt-in-your-mouth dairy milk, the luxurious treat has most definitely earned its place in the hearts and taste buds of sweet-toothed indulgers across the globe.  

Now, industry experts are warning chocolate lovers to savour every last bite, with the prediction that there could be a global chocolate shortage by 2020. Industry goliaths such as Mars Inc have confirmed that the world now consumes chocolate faster than cocoa farmers can produce beans. This essentially means that in a matter of years chocolate will no longer be a readily available treat, but a rare luxury.

A simple case of supply and demand

Every year the world produces around 3.5 million tonnes of cocoa. While in the past this has been sufficient enough to meet global demand, changing tastes and an increasing appreciation for the joys of chocolate will create a supply and demand shortage. In 2013 the world gobbled down a huge 70,000 metric tons more cocoa than farmers were able to produce. This meant suppliers had to delve into stockpiles in order to meet market demand. This shortfall is expected to continue until 2018, which will create the biggest chocolate shortage in over half a century. Furthermore, experts are predicting that the deficit could spiral to 14-fold by 2020, then hit a 2 million metric ton shortage by 2030. Bad news for chocolate aficionados!

China drives up chocolate demand

One of the biggest factors driving the predicted chocolate shortage is an increase in demand from densely populated countries such as China. While Brits have been consuming chocolate for decades, the Chinese are relative newcomers when it comes to enjoying cocoa products. BBC reporter Martin Patience explains, "If everyone in China ate a chocolate bar, then sales would be huge. That's because for every one person in Britain, there are 20 Chinese people."

Changing economies

As well as an increase in demand, the world is also facing a decrease in supply. In prime cocoa growing areas such as West Africa’s Ivory Coast unfavourable weather and fungal diseases are starting to turn farmers away from cocoa plantations and turn to other crops. “It has a potential to be a huge economic disaster for that part of the world,” warns Jack Scoville, senior market analyst at Chicago based commodities analysis company, Price Futures Group. “It’s an important source of export earnings, and for the average worker it could be their [livelihood].” 

Love chocolate? Check out this article on the International Viscosity Test Methods for Chocolate, as outlined by the International Confectionary Association.