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There was a statistically significant number of deaths in those under 65 in London, with 41 reported during the August heatwave. Photograph: Alamy
There was a statistically significant number of deaths in those under 65 in London, with 41 reported during the August heatwave. Photograph: Alamy

Heatwaves in 2019 led to almost 900 extra deaths in England

This article is more than 4 years old

Analysis shows impact of climate emergency in year of record temperatures

The summer heatwaves of 2019 resulted in almost 900 extra deaths, according to statistical analysis from Public Health England.

Over the past four years more than 3,400 people have died early during periods of extreme temperature in England. Global heating is increasing the frequency of heatwaves and a cross-party committee of MPs warned in July that the UK was “woefully unprepared” for this impact of the climate emergency.

All regions of England were affected except the south-west, and almost all the premature deaths were among people aged 65 or over. The frail elderly with heart or kidney problems are most at risk in a heatwave and dehydration can also lead to dizziness and falls.

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Fossil fuel companies have been aware of their impact on the planet since at least the 1950s

The physicist Edward Teller tells the American Petroleum Institute (API) a 10% increase in CO2 will be sufficient to melt the icecap and submerge New York. “I think that this chemical contamination is more serious than most people tend to believe.”

Lyndon Johnson’s President’s Science Advisory Committee states that “pollutants have altered on a global scale the carbon dioxide content of the air”, with effects that “could be deleterious from the point of view of human beings”. Summarising the findings, the head of the API warned the industry: “Time is running out.”

Shell and BP begin funding scientific research in Britain this decade to examine climate impacts from greenhouse gases.

A recently filed lawsuit claims Exxon scientists told management in 1977 there was an “overwhelming” consensus that fossil fuels were responsible for atmospheric carbon dioxide increases.

An internal Exxon memo warns “it is distinctly possible” that CO2 emissions from the company’s 50-year plan “will later produce effects which will indeed be catastrophic (at least for a substantial fraction of the Earth’s population)”.

The Nasa scientist James Hansen testifies to the US Senate that “the greenhouse effect has been detected, and it is changing our climate now”. In the US presidential campaign, George Bush Sr says: “Those who think we are powerless to do anything about the greenhouse effect forget about the White House effect … As president, I intend to do something about it.”

confidential report prepared for Shell’s environmental conservation committee finds CO2 could raise temperatures by 1C to 2C over the next 40 years with changes that may be “the greatest in recorded history”. It urges rapid action by the energy industry. “By the time the global warming becomes detectable it could be too late to take effective countermeasures to reduce the effects or even stabilise the situation,” it states.

Exxon, Shell, BP and other fossil fuel companies establish the Global Climate Coalition (GCC), a lobbying group that challenges the science on global warming and delays action to reduce emissions.

Exxon funds two researchers, Dr Fred Seitz and Dr Fred Singer, who dispute the mainstream consensus on climate science. Seitz and Singer were previously paid by the tobacco industry and questioned the hazards of smoking. Singer, who has denied being on the payroll of the tobacco or energy industry, has said his financial relationships do not influence his research.

Shell’s public information film Climate of Concern acknowledges there is a “possibility of change faster than at any time since the end of the ice age, change too fast, perhaps, for life to adapt without severe dislocation”.

At the Rio Earth summit, countries sign up to the world’s first international agreement to stabilise greenhouse gases and prevent dangerous manmade interference with the climate system. This establishes the UN framework convention on climate change. Bush Sr says: “The US fully intends to be the pre-eminent world leader in protecting the global environment.”

Two month’s before the Kyoto climate conference, Mobil (later merged with Exxon) takes out an ad in The New York Times titled Reset the Alarm, which says: “Let’s face it: the science of climate change is too uncertain to mandate a plan of action that could plunge economies into turmoil.”

The US refuses to ratify the Kyoto protocol after intense opposition from oil companies and the GCC.

The US senator Jim Inhofe, whose main donors are in the oil and gas industry, leads the “Climategate” misinformation attack on scientists on the opening day of the crucial UN climate conference in Copenhagen, which ends in disarray.

A study by Richard Heede, published in the journal Climatic Change, reveals 90 companies are responsible for producing two-thirds of the carbon that has entered the atmosphere since the start of the industrial age in the mid-18th century.

The API removes a claim on its website that the human contribution to climate change is “uncertain”, after an outcry.

Exxon, Chevron and BP each donate at least $500,000 for the inauguration of Donald Trump as president.

Mohammed Barkindo, secretary general of Opec, which represents Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Algeria, Iran and several other oil states, says climate campaigners are the biggest threat to the industry and claims they are misleading the public with unscientific warnings about global warming.

Jonathan Watts

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“Heatwaves continue to result in significant health impact,” said the PHE report. It reported the “excess deaths” during the heatwaves, ie the additional mortalities compared with the long-term average for those dates.

Two heatwaves accounted for the 892 deaths. The first, from 21 to 28 July, included the highest temperature ever recorded in the UK: 38.7C in Cambridge. The second occurred between 23 and 29 August.

The climate crisis made 2019 a year of record temperatures in the UK, according to the Met Office. The only region that recorded a statistically significant number of deaths in those under 65 was London, with 41 early deaths reported during the August heatwave.

“Tragically, many of these deaths are likely to have been preventable,” said Bob Ward, at the Grantham Research Institute on Climate Change at the London School of Economics. “Many of the people who are killed by heatwave conditions die in their own homes or in care homes. The Committee on Climate Change (CCC) pointed out in July 2019 that the government has failed to set out a coherent plan for implementing the adaptations required.”

The CCC said it had been recommending new building regulations to ensure homes, hospitals and schools do not overheat since 2015, but that this advice had been rejected by ministers, who cited a commitment to “reduce net regulation on homebuilders”. Without action, the number of people dying as a result of heat is expected to reach 7,000 a year by 2040, the CCC said.

“The CCC also noted that although there has been a heatwave plan for England since 2004, there is no evidence that it has reduced the number of deaths that occur during hot weather,” said Ward.

The report from the House of Commons environmental audit committee said hospitals and care homes in particular must be prepared for heatwaves, given that sick and elderly people are most vulnerable. But they say currently the NHS is only required to prepare plans for severe cold weather.

“The government needs to take much more seriously the dangers of hot weather. The threat of deadly heatwaves is growing due to climate change and the death toll is likely to rise unless there is strong action,” said Ward. The Department of Health has been contacted for comment.

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  • UK's hottest recorded day 'caused deaths of extra 200 people'

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